World Cup Stats Guide
See out comprehensive FIFA Men's World Cup history guide for everything you need about the tournament. Find FIFA Men's World Cup results, stats ad more at FOX Sports. STATS can produce World Cup graphics that can be used both on social media and digital platforms in a variety of styles. STATS works with clients to build.
Shaun Botterill/Getty Images Germany out. Argentina through (just). Spain well below par. England and Belgium seemingly competing to lose.
The 2018 World Cup has thrown up surprise after surprise. So what can we learn from a group phase that has confounded the form guide and left the two halves of the knockout draw weirdly imbalanced? Take an in-depth look at the stats and a few big things emerge: England’s ingenuity; the weird brilliance of Sweden, and the data that hinted at Germany’s surprise early exit. Omar Chaudhuri, head of football intelligence at, runs the numbers on a remarkable tournament. The World Cup should celebrate its competitiveness One of the defining features of the group stage has been the number of closely-contested matches. Of the 48 games played, 33 (69 per cent) were either drawn or decided by one goal.
While you might expect close matches in a low-scoring sport like football, this has not been the trend outside the international game. The UEFA Champions League’s group stage has 96 matches, just 48 per cent of which last year were draws or one-goal victories.
While Champions League clubs have the benefit of home advantage, which skews this comparison slightly, there is a growing feeling that the game’s wealth has found its way to an elite few, leading to increasingly uncompetitive club competitions. International football is largely immune from this phenomenon – a country can’t buy the best talent from another nation – and as a result there is no gulf emerging between the best and worst teams.
England victorious in defeat? Surprise results for Argentina and Germany means that one half of the draw is perceivably weaker than the other. This created a dilemma for Belgium and England when they met in the final group game; win and face a potentially trickier run to the final or lose and take on the easier half. By WIRED Both teams fielded weakened starting lineups, and Belgium almost reluctantly won the match 1-0. According to the our World Cup prediction model, this reduced their chances of winning the tournament from 10.7 per cent to 7.6 per cent, while England’s rose from 9.6 per cent to 11.0 per cent.
While England’s second round opponents Colombia are almost twice as likely to beat England as Japan – their opponents had they come first – there is a 41 per cent chance England make the semi finals from this half compared to a 33 per cent chance from the other half. Were Germany overrated? Germany’s squad before the tournament was considered to have the most strength in depth, especially after effectively their B-team won the FIFA Confederations Cup last summer. The 21st Club Player Model, which estimates player ability based on the quality of their club, their playing time, and performance, ranked Germany as having the tournament’s second-strongest squad. By this same logic, many experts picked them out as the favourites. However, our national team rating model, which instead relies on match results to estimate the quality of national sides, identified up signals that our player model could not. The team model ranked Germany as the fifth-best team going into the tournament, based in part on mixed results in the preceding months.
This model could see that despite their great players, they weren’t clicking together as they should, and were perhaps not as good as what they seemed on paper. A lack of cohesion between their stars ultimately led to their exit.
World Cup Winners
VAR may lead to rule changes The introduction of the at the World Cup has, overall, reduced the number of major errors made by referees. However, it has shown that referees have perhaps been historically lenient when dealing with penalty incidents; there have been 24 penalties awarded in 48 matches in this tournament, more than in any of the previous World Cups.
This raises the question as to whether penalties are too harsh a punishment for what are often minor infringements. Just under 80 per cent of penalties are scored; it is almost a free goal in a sport that averages around 2.5 per game.
Perhaps only fouls that deny obvious goal scoring opportunities should result in the awarding of a penalty. England in particular have shown ingenuity in their approach, scoring six of their eight goals from dead ball scenarios. Club teams could learn a lesson from this; too many treat set pieces as an afterthought in training, or simply practice only the most common approaches. Football has an incredibly high resistance to change, but set play success at the World Cup should lead to a cultural shift in time, with more specialist coaches and experts from other sports having an influence on the training ground. Key players on a tightrope Brazil’s Neymar and Philippe Coutinho, Argentina’s Lionel Messi, and Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo would all miss the quarter finals if they receive a yellow card in their second round matches.
This would have serious implications for their nation’s chances of advancing further. A full-strength Brazil team would have a 55 per cent chance of knocking out Belgium, their most-likely quarter final opponents. If Neymar were to miss the match, this would drop to 51 per cent. Without Coutinho too, Brazil would become underdogs with a 45 per cent chance of progressing. Meanwhile Argentina and Portugal could face each other in the quarter finals, if they manage to navigate difficult second round matches.
An Argentina team without Messi would reduce their chances of beating Portugal from 64 per cent to 58 per cent. This is a significant hit, but Argentina still have strong attacking options, even if they’re currently struggling to gel. Portugal meanwhile would see their chances cut from 36 per cent to just 28 per cent without Ronaldo, such is the lack of quality in replacement. Is football coming home?
Messi World Cup Stats
Besides the draw, there is some cause for optimism with England. For the first time in a generation, it seems like the team is playing a tactical system – a somewhat uncommon 5-3-2 – that entirely suits key players like Kyle Walker, Dele Alli and Harry Kane, rather than trying to accommodate one or two ageing or incompatible stars. Manchester United’s Jesse Lingard has also emerged as an important creative player, who has perhaps benefitted from the enormous competition for places at his clubs side; he has shown little sign of the fatigue that is often put forward as a reason for England’s failures. Defensively, however, England are vulnerable. They’ve often conceded possession in dangerous areas despite having deliberately selected players who are strong passers. This may prove their undoing against a clinical attacking team.
Brazil and Spain remain the favourites Before the tournament, our model gave Brazil a 22 per cent chance of winning the World Cup, with Spain in second on 17 per cent. Germany’s exit has boosted both teams, but only slightly; their odds have risen to 24 per cent and 18 per cent respectively. A Brazil-Spain final also remains the most likely at 14 per cent, and the odds of a first-time winner have increased slightly from 27 per cent to 30 per cent.
“For over 60 years, the Cardinals Media Guide has been the ultimate resource for media covering the team and a high quality collectible the minute it comes off the press,” said Ron Watermon, Vice President of Communications. “This year’s guide is truly spectacular, offering fans a detailed view into the 2015 team while also showcasing with the overall look of the guide how Cardinals tradition meets today.” The 2015 St.